Posted by: thenakedoption | July 9, 2008

Stay away from airlines

Calgary-based WestJet Airlines announced today a partnership with Southwest Airlines. The alliance between the discount carriers means WestJet will gain access to Southwest’s U.S. routes in the 48 contingent states and Southwest will have access to WestJet’s vacation destinations such as Mexico and Hawaii.

WestJet shares were up more than 11% today to close at $14.10, but I’m not about to start snapping up their stock. While I strongly believe this is a good move for both airlines and should result in better service for consumers, I’m not convinced the airline industry is a place to start investing your hard-earned money. In the wake of sky-rocketing fuel costs, airlines have had to implement fuel surcharges, charge for services that used to be free (such as that second piece of luggage), and reduce or eliminate routes altogether. Combine that with excess capacity and a slipping load factor, and you have a shrinking bottom line for all airlines.

With carbon-reducing initiatives and rising fuel costs, the global airline industry is undergoing a massive overhaul that will most likely result in aggregate restructuring and consolidation. It is unlikely that people will stop flying, so only the smart and the strong players will survive, but it will be a long and bumpy ride. I wouldn’t touch airlines with a 10-foot pole right now. I feel the risk to reward factor is simply too high. If you insist on investing in transportation, take a look at the freighter and shipping industry.


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